Joe Biden won the White House in the 2020 election with narrow victories over Donald Trump in six crucial battleground states.
Fast-forward three years, and the most recent polling in those key swing states is raising fears regarding Biden’s re-election in 2024 as he faces a likely rematch with Trump, the commanding frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.
Numerous national polls and a couple battleground state surveys conducted in recent weeks, which have an indicted Trump edging Biden in hypothetical general election showdowns, have grabbed substantial media attention.
The polls suggest Biden’s support is deteriorating among Black, Latino and younger voters, who have all long been key constituencies in the Democratic Party’s base.
‘The lack of enthusiasm and declining support is certainly real,’ noted Chris Anderson, a veteran Democratic pollster and strategist and the Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll for a decade and a half.
‘In terms of where those folks will be next November, I would expect a lot, if not the vast majority of them, to return to the Democratic base if it’s a Biden-Trump matchup,’ Anderson said. ‘I think as soon as Trump’s name is opposite Biden’s, everything is different than if you’re evaluating Biden on his own.’
Another potential electoral hazard for the president is the prospect of independent or third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, progressive university scholar Cornell West and a potential bipartsan ticket supported by the centrist No Labels organization, which could draw votes from Biden.
Here are the six battleground states (in alphabetical order) where Biden will likely need to work overtime to keep them in the Democrats’ column.
ARIZONA
Biden edged Trump by less than 11,000 votes out of more than 3.3 million cast. He became the first Democrat to carry the state — and its 11 electoral votes — since President Bill Clinton in 1996.
The most recent polls in the state of Arizona for a hypothetical 2024 rematch suggest Trump either slightly ahead or tied with Biden.
GEORGIA
Biden topped Trump by less than 12,000 votes out of roughly 4.5 million cast. He became the first Democrat to win the state — and it’s 16 electoral votes — since Clinton in 1992.
The most recent polls in Georgia for a potential 2024 rematch indicate Trump ahead of Biden from the lower to upper single digits.
MICHIGAN
Biden defeated Trump by 2.8 percentage points to flip a state Trump had captured in 2016.
Michigan has 16 electoral votes up for grabs again in 2024, and polls suggest a tight contest between Biden and Trump in the Great Lakes battleground.
NEVADA
Biden defeated Trump by 2.4 percentage points to flip a state Trump had captured in 2016. It was the smallest margin of victory for any Democratic presidential nominee in the Silver State since the party last lost Nevada in 2004.
Nevada has six electoral votes up for grabs again in 2024, and polls suggest Trump is ahead of the president from the low single digits to the low double digits.
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden defeated Trump by 1.2 percentage points to reclaim a state for the Democrats that Trump had flipped in 2016.
Pennsylvania will have 19 electoral votes up for grabs in 2024 — down one from 2020 — and the latest surveys indicate Biden either even with Trump or trailing slightly.
WISCONSIN
Biden edged Trump by just over 20,000 votes out of more than 3.2 million cast in the 2020 election. He reclaimed a state that Trump had flipped from blue to red in 2016.
Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes up for grabs again in 2024, and polls suggest an extremely tight contest between Biden and Trump.
‘Whether those six states in particular will be more difficult [for Biden], I think we’re a little far out to say that,’ Anderson said.
‘I think it’s clear that we have a sharply divided country that hasn’t become less divided in the past four years.’
